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Sunday 21 June 2015

Manchester United Scouting Reports: Nicolas Otamendi

Manchester United has had no shortage of great center backs throughout the years, from Steve Bruce and Gary Pallister to Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand. This past season, however, it has been evident that a rethink is required in the heart of Manchester United's defense. Despite some certainly bright moments wherein there was definite solidity, the United back line has been broken more often than teacups in a china shop as an elephant rampages through. A strong, assertive presence player is needed, one that is a constant even as his fellow players fall victim to injury. Many have come to believe that Nicolas Otamendi is the man that is needed by United at this present moment. After all, he is coming off of a stellar season with Valencia, helping the club reach the Champions League playoff spots with the third best defensive record in La Liga. Given his status as the stalwart of the Valencia defense, it is no surprise that many have gone to label him as world class; as someone who is a necessity, not an option, for Ed Woodward to acquire for Manchester United.


Statistical Analysis:

Otamendi's immediate first impression is summed up in one word: consistency. Over the 35 appearances he made in La Liga for Valencia this past season, he totaled 3098 minutes, or rather, 88.51 minutes for every appearance he made. These are numbers which lay akin to Diego Godin, who averaged 90 minutes per appearance over his 34 appearances, and John Terry, who was noted to have played every minute in the league for Chelsea this past season. Compare this to Phil Jones, Chris Smalling, and Marcos Rojo, players who made 22, 25, and 22 league appearances respectively while averaging 85, 75, and 80 minutes per appearance. Thus, Otamendi provides a guaranteed option for Louis van Gaal; a cornerstone upon which he can build his squad. To promise defensive solidity, there has to be the opportunity for partnerships to form between the center backs and across the line as a whole, something which simply did not happen with Manchester United this past season due to constant injuries and suspensions to the various defensive players. Contrast this to Otamendi's six days missed due to injury. The team will be able to rest assured that Otamendi will be present, thereby instilling confidence and a sense of freedom to the team's play which is rooted in inherently knowing where each player is.
 

A player being consistently fit, while nice, is not a guarantor of a player's merit to be in the starting eleven. A starting spot mandates a certain level of quality which Otamendi more than fulfills. He averages 2.9 tackles per game and 3.1 interceptions per game while conceding only 1 foul per game. All these numbers are noticeably higher than Jones, Smalling, and Rojo, suggesting that Otamendi will be a substantial improvement to the squad should he sign with Manchester United. The sheer volume of his numbers suggests that he is an able presser of the ball; a player who is not unwilling to step forward and force the opposition into losing possession. This is an idea which is integral to Louis van Gaal's oft-cited "philosophy," with the team as a whole pressing high by playing a high line in order to quickly win back possession. The United manager's desires of his new center back is reflected in how statistically comparable Otamendi is to Mats Hummels, another reported target, as the latter player averages 2.5 tackles per game and 2.2 interceptions per game. Similarly, both players are dribbled past roughly once per game, a worrying sign as it suggests that Otamendi, like Hummels, can be prone to being caught unaware in regards to his defensive positioning. Otamendi's physical qualities help him compensate for this, but it still remains something to be worried about.


Aerially, Otamendi is strong, but perhaps not fully dominant. He wins 3.5 aerial duels per game, losing out on about another two, giving him an aerial success percentage of 65%. John Terry, by comparison, wins 74% of his aerial battles but he partakes in 3.5 aerial duels per game, significantly less than Otamendi's 5.5 total aerial duels per game. For a comparison within La Liga, Sergio Ramos wins 71% of his aerial duels per game, winning 3.2 while losing 1.4 each match. Given how highly Ramos is considered to be, Otamendi does himself no harm as he wins 0.3 more duels while losing out on 0.5 more, thereby putting him in a bracket close to that of the quality of Ramos. As a side note, Chris Smalling is Manchester United's most successful center back when it comes to taking to the air, with a success rate of 67% but with him winning 2.8 aerial duels, a number noticeably lower than Otamendi's. As such, Otamendi would provide United with another dimension during set pieces by simply being another aerial threat to go with Smalling, who was the only United center back to score a goal of any sort in the league last season. In fact, Otamendi scored a total of 6 league goals, including one against both Atletico and Real Madrid, with the latter goal ending Real's 22 match winning run. This number is again similar to Sergio Ramos, who scored 7 goals for Real Madrid, while also being better than John Terry, who scored 5 goals for Chelsea in the league last season.
 

Otamendi's abilities on the ball are perhaps the only worry regarding his performances with Valencia. His short passing success percentage is 89%, which appears high at first, but becomes less impressive when it is noted that Phil Jones, Chris Smalling, Marcos Rojo, Paddy McNair, John Terry, and Sergio Ramos all possess better success rates with their short passes. This might have been rectified if Otamendi were to be making a great volume of passes, but he only attempts 35 short passes per game, a number which is again lower than all of the United center backs. Louis van Gaal's possession-based system might improve these numbers, but it is still a question regarding Otamendi to note. By contrast, Otamendi's ability to play the ball long is again good, with him averaging 5.3 accurate long balls per game, while missing 3.7, giving him a success percentage of 59%. This is comparable to the Manchester United trio, who fall around the 60% success rate when attempting around 10 long balls per game, just like Otamendi. Sergio Ramos fully surpasses the other center backs on this metric, as his long ball completion rate is 68%. The most important takeaway from here is that Otamendi is capable of moving the ball about, if not pushing the play wide by sending a long ball out to the wings. While perhaps not his strongest suit, he can still work the ball reasonably well.
 
 

Match Analysis:

Statistics are very nice, but they do not speak everything. For instance, the best center back in the Premier League last season, John Terry, averaged only 1.1 tackles per game and 0.9 interceptions per game. Even though Phil Jones made more tackles and interceptions, he was definitely not the better player. There are many different facets to football, especially when it comes to the position of being a center back. Therefore, it is integral to look into particular matches and recognize the individual qualities that Otamendi has shown in each of them in order to attain a better understanding of the player.
 

BARCELONA 2 - 0 VALENCIA

In a somewhat expected loss to Barcelona as the Catalan outfit marched to their second treble in six years, Otamendi provided a decent account of himself. A key point to note in the heatmap is that since Valencia were playing away, their defensive half is on the right half of the diagram. Immediately noticeable with Otamendi is his tendency to move forward towards the center circle, suggesting a willingness to press high, integral to the system van Gaal is looking to adopt at Manchester United. Another point to note is the frequency with which Otamendi adopts a more central position, despite technically starting as the left-sided center back, which in turn perhaps suggests a little bit of indiscipline in the Argentinian. The below diagram also suggests an expansiveness to his passing, with him consistently cycling the ball out wide to either his full back or his winger. He is somewhat marauding in his play, as during quite a few instances he forays forwards to play the ball as he sees fit, thereby allowing for the team as a whole to press a touch higher, thus applying even more pressure on the opposition defense.



VALENCIA 3 - 1 ATLETICO MADRID

In somewhat of a contrast to his performance against Barcelona, Otamendi here showcases his ability to stay positionally disciplined, as he largely sticks to his role as the left-sided center back. Note that since Valencia were playing at home, the defensive half is on the left side of the diagram. Again noticeable is Otamendi's tendency to push forwards in order to aid the team as they attack. In the more detailed diagram below, it is critical to realize how often Otamendi is involved in clearing the ball or making a tackle, suggesting a robust and all-around active style with which he approaches the game. This dynamism will be critical in injecting energy and drive into the United team when tiredness may be setting in. It suggests an approach which is epitomized through the notion of leading by example, in that Otamendi willingly forces himself upon the match in order to create an impact and make the team win. That is the kind of mentality needed at Manchester United.



VALENCIA 2 - 1 REAL MADRID

Lastly comes what is Otamendi's best performance of the season: his Man of the Match-winning shift against a Real Madrid team which had won the previous 22 matches and looked unstoppable as they headed into the Mestalla. Here, notice Otamendi's main action areas as being far more concentrated than in the other matches. This highlights his ability in being positionally disciplined and willing to actively listen to what the manager instructs him to do. Furthermore, it shows a level of tactical flexibility in Otamendi as he was the central of the back three that Valencia played that day. Given van Gaal's tendency to tinker with his system on occasion, Otamendi fits a major requirement in his versatility to quickly adapt to what may be a foreign role. In addition, a running theme through all the heatmaps has been Otamendi having a solitary dot in the opponent's box, which in turn showcases his ability to be dominant aerially in providing a threat in attacking set pieces, a critical asset for any center back to have. In the more detailed diagram below, a point of worry lies in how often Otamendi gave the ball away, which in turn leads to questions regarding his composure and ability on the ball when pressured by quality opposition, but he more than makes up for it through the sheer number of defensive actions in which he prevails. Through his performances in these three matches, it is evident that Otamendi is more than capable of rising to the big occasion and acting out his role in the team as it is required.
 

Final Thoughts:


Finding the right center back is a difficult task, and no amount of statistics and analysis can tell a person how well a certain player may fit into a system. What they can tell you is what kind of player one should expect, and it is from there that one may be able to insert them into the system in mind. Defenders are particularly difficult to evaluate as their statistics may not be wholly representative of the full picture, which is why it is critical to attempt to form a fuller understanding through looking at a player through how they get through matches. Otamendi shows himself to be a sort of action-oriented center back who is unafraid to press forwards and assault the opposition. He is an aerial threat when attacking the ball on set pieces, and is more than capable of shutting even the world's best players down. He is somewhat worrying in that his passing abilities may not be fully up to the standard expected at United, but it certainly can be worked on. At the age of 27, he is beginning to enter his prime years and is showing the abilities that Porto envisioned when they bought him five years ago. He possesses the physical abilities to allow him to succeed in the Premier League while still having the energy to actively partake in and embody the system that Louis van Gaal is attempting to instill in Manchester United. While his reported price tag is certainly rather high, he is in one of the top tiers of defenders, and that is worth every penny.


IMPACT: 9/10
POTENTIAL: 9/10
VALUE FOR MONEY: 9/10

All statistics sourced from WhoScored and all diagrams are sourced from either FourFourTwo or Squawka

Tuesday 12 May 2015

Manchester United Scouting Reports: Memphis Depay

One minute, the best player of the Eredivisie seemed set to join Paris Saint-Germain. The next, it was officially announced that he had become a Manchester United player. After a whirlwind of events which culminated in the confirmation of Memphis Depay's arrival at Old Trafford next season, quite a few people were bound to wonder as to the qualities of the player. Sure, best in the Eredivisie sounds nice, but Alfonso Alves was also one of the best players in that league before he crashed and burned at Middlesbrough. On the other side of the coin, Luis Suarez came to the Premier League, adapted, and simply ran rampant last season. So, the question then arises: will Memphis Depay be an Alfonso Alves or a Luis Suarez?



Statistical Analysis:

Memphis' immediate impressions are striking indeed, with him having scored 21 goals while assisting 4 more over the course of his 28 league appearances this season, as he totaled 2396 minutes played, or roughly 85 minutes per game, all at the age of 21. He has started almost all the games for which he has been available for PSV, with the only exception being a groin injury which kept him out of 7 matches at the start of the season, indicating his reliability in terms of fitness, something which is undoubtedly a relief to Manchester United fans given the consistent injury woes which have plagued the squad throughout much of the season. His goal-scoring (and assisting) prowess resulted in him contributing a goal to the team in some form roughly every 96 minutes that he has played this season, a consistency which places him above the likes of Eden Hazard (141 minutes per goal+assist) and Gareth Bale (114 minutes per goal+assist). One must keep in mind the gap between the Eredivisie and both La Liga as well as the Premier League, so these numbers should be expected to drop, but even then, he would likely find himself in very good company. Nevertheless, this keen eye for goal permits Memphis to play across any of the front three positions, something Louis van Gaal will undoubtedly be pleased with as it will give the manager a flexibility in his tactics, most notably in giving a very quick option to play as a striker in matches where the Manchester United boss chooses to set up a more counter-attacking formation.


He is a volume shooter, averaging 5.5 shots per game, starkly more than Eden Hazard (2 per game) and definitely more than United's current left winger Ashley Young (1.2 per game). Much like a certain Cristiano Ronaldo (who himself takes 6.3 shots per game), Memphis is more than willing to take a shot from anywhere on the pitch, provided he is given a slight chance to take a shot. While it would be nice to have someone taking long-distance shots at goal, something which Manchester United has largely lacked this season, it is pointless if the player is consistently failing to find the target. In this area, Memphis puts in good numbers, scoring a goal for every 14% of the shots he takes, a little off of Ronaldo and Hazard's 20% shot conversion rate. However, statistics can be misleading, as Ronaldo and Depay are both likelier to take riskier attempts shots at goal, something which is likely hampering their shot conversion rates while Hazard, who shoots significantly less, appears to make his attempts when it appears to be "safer" to shoot.


There are noticeable gaps between Memphis and the likes of Eden Hazard and Gareth Bale, and these begin to become apparent as one goes deeper into his performance statistics. Memphis makes 2.8 successful dribbles per game, much more than Ashley Young (1.5 per game) and about one more than Bale, but significantly less than Hazard (4.6 per game). And, despite his completing of less dribbles than Hazard, Memphis is dispossessed at about the same rate (2.4 dispossessions per game versus 2.8), while having about one more unsuccessful touch per game, indicating a tendency to give the ball back to the opposition. This is not helped by the fact that his from his 32 passes per game, he only has a completion rate of 74.6%, significantly less than all the other players involved on this comparison. This is somewhat rectified by his 2.1 key passes per game, which is fairly close to Hazard's 2.6 key passes and far more than Ashley Young's 1.3 key passes per game, highlighting Memphis' willingness to play a risky pass and attempt to create opportunities for his teammates.

This is furthered by his fantastic crossing ability, wherein Memphis completes 28% of all the crosses he attempts, which is higher than both Hazard and Young, with both of them having a 25% completion rate, though Young attempts far more crosses than Hazard does. Where Memphis tries about 4.6 crosses per game, Hazard only tries 1.5 while Young pumps in 8.4, which definitely places Young in a more positive light in keeping such a reasonably high success rate while sending the ball into the box so often. Nevertheless, Memphis' statistics all indicate that while he is definitely a talent, there are some glaring issues which stand out, something which reflects his youthful age and ability to grow. Through a purely statistical outlook, it appears as though Manchester United have signed a player with major potential who has the ability to slot into the team and start growing. However, one must keep in mind the difference between playing for PSV in the Eredivisie and playing for Manchester United in the Premier League. As such, only statistics cannot be relied upon.

Match Analysis:

Memphis, as successful as he has been throughout his entire season, has had to have performed in individual matches in order to produce the numbers he has produced. Much like any other player, he is bound to have had poor games from time-to-time, and so it is critical to see what he contributes even when he has not performed well, thereby allowing to best understand his qualities in the team:

PSV EINDHOVEN 1 - 3 AJAX

While definitely a poor loss for PSV on their march to the title this season, several aspects of Memphis' play become immediately apparent. While he is defined as being a left winger, he has a tendency to drift inside the pitch and at times even merging onto the right side of the field where he should theoretically not be. Furthermore, he does not appear to be the type of winger who sticks to the sideline and runs down, whipping in crosses; instead he seems to work the spaces in and around the box, looking to find an angle which he can come in from. A look into his passing decisions throughout this match further validates this notion:

The starting position of Memphis' passes immediately draws attention to and reinforces the idea that he is the type of winger who, while largely sticking to his position, is very capable of drifting inside. More often than not, he passes inside, suggesting that he may be looking to create quick one-twos between the left-sided central midfielder and himself to he can make forays into the box. Memphis' capabilities to drift inside will be critical as it will open up space for Luke Shaw to attack into with greater effect next season, as Depay provides an additional threat to simply being able to cross: his shooting

What is critical to note here is how often Memphis takes his shots from outside the box. Out of 7 total attempts, 5 were taken from positions he had taken after drifting infield while still outside the box. Furthermore, two of his shots were blocked by defenders, while another two forced saves from Jasper Cillessen, indicating his ability to threaten the goal from outside the box even on an off-day like this match.

FEYENOORD 2 - 1 PSV EINDHOVEN

While this is another loss on PSV's march to the title, Memphis was one of the Rotterdam outfit's best players on the day, in his being able to still score a goal. (Please note that PSV is attacking the left side, as such making the left wing in this instance the bottom half of the figure)
His heatmap in this instance is more conservative than in the Ajax match as though he showed an ability to influence the match by taking multiple positions across the entirety of the pitch in the previously discussed match, he adopts a deeper role in this instance. What this suggests is that though Memphis much prefers adopting an attacking role in which he is running at defenders and dragging them out of position, he is more than capable of being disciplined and holding his place for the sake of the team. However, this does not contain his tendency to drift in search of goals, as is evident by how his heatmap trails off towards the center of the pitch.

Again, despite being forced deeper than he usually is, Memphis produced quality in being able to slip into space before eventually scoring from a long-distance effort which again highlighted his ability to shoot from any spot on the football pitch. He continually demonstrates a consistency in being able to force the goalkeeper into dangerous situations which may benefit himself in terms of his goal tally or his team if the goalkeeper were to parry the ball back into the box or simply by pulling defenders around him because of the threat that he provides.

TWENTE 0 - 5 PSV EINDHOVEN

Where the previous two were losses, here is an absolutely sublime performance by Memphis in which he scored two goals in a match away from home.
In case it has not already been made clear yet, Memphis likes to drift inside off of the left wing quite often, being most influential when given the freedom to do so. An issue may arise as if Louis van Gaal persists with placing Juan Mata on the right wing while having Memphis on the left, as they both will look to cut inside, thus narrowing the team considerably. Such a situation may be solved by placing Angel di Maria in his best position as the left central midfielder, so he may drive from a deeper position to create an alternate threat by running either through the heart of the opposition defense or out wide to the left wing. A noticeable feature of Real Madrid in the Decima-winning campaign was di Maria surging through the midfield onto the left wing as Ronaldo drifted into becoming a quasi-striker. There have been multiple suggestions of Memphis perhaps becoming the "next Ronaldo," and, given his shooting ability combined with a potential partnership with di Maria, it is not necessarily an impossible title to acquire.
Here, make note on the range of Memphis' passing to create chances for his teammates. This reinforces the idea of his vision to be able to create opportunities for his teammates in addition to scoring chances himself. Memphis is an intelligent footballer who knows what to do and when to do it. Usually.
Just a small note on his shooting here. Again, the long shots are a feature, though his clinical ability inside the box is something to note as he goes across the goalkeeper for one of his two goals while coolly slotting it home for another. He knows how to find space, get in the right position, and put the ball into the back of the net, not just take long shot after long shot.

PSV EINDHOVEN 4 - 1 HEERENVEEN


This is a more interesting range of passing on behalf of Memphis in this match. Though PSV dominated and ended up winning quite handily, with Memphis scoring yet another goal, he was perhaps not as influential as he might have been. Sure, the performance was impressive, yet one can see that he drifts quite a bit, perhaps too much for his own good. There must be a level of control, as he may unintentionally leave Manchester United's left wing wide open to be exploited by floating out of position. Like Gareth Bale at Tottenham, Memphis is given great leeway at PSV to do what he wants to do because he is easily the best player on the team. Matches like this one show his youthfulness in the sheer number of misplaced passes he commits in searching for the one "Hollywood pass." His creativity is not to be denied, but let this be a reminder that Memphis is still only 21 years old and has quite a bit of room to develop in. He has to be given time and patience and he will surely grow.


Final Thoughts:


Was this somewhat long? Perhaps. Actually, almost definitely. But for good reason. Memphis Depay could very well be one of the best players of his generation. It is most definitely possible given his flair and scoring ability. He has a multifaceted, intelligent approach to the game which flows wonderfully with his sheer pace and raw strength, attributes which would surely aid him in succeeding in the Premier League. Memphis has an innate sense of finding the goal, either be it for himself or through creating chances for his teammates. But he is still young. While it is important to hope for him to fulfill his potential and believe in him becoming a Manchester United legend, it is equally critical to appreciate the fact that he is moving from a league that he dominated to a league which is foreign and strange and one in which he may not succeed from the get-go. But he will grow, and he has the talent to be the focus of the team, much like Cristiano Ronaldo was a little under a decade ago. This time, however, I do not think he will be trading Manchester for Madrid.


IMPACT: 9/10
POTENTIAL: 10/10
LIKELIHOOD OF TRANSFER: ALREADY DONE

All statistics sourced from WhoScored.com and all diagrams sourced from Squawka

Thursday 7 August 2014

Manchester United Scouting Reports: Arturo Vidal - The Summer 2014 Edition

Will he or will he not? As the transfer merry-go-round keeps on spinning around, Manchester United fans have had to deal with constant, incessant rumors about the status of a certain Arturo Vidal. Many strongly believe that he is the number one answer to the persistent issues for United in the middle of the park, but Louis van Gaal is rumored to be unsettled by the condition of the Chilean's knee. If he were to be signed, he could very likely take Juan Mata's place as Manchester United's record signing, so the question has to be asked: Will he be worth it?

Performance and Comparison:

For the most part, Vidal is simply a class above United's current midfield options. He started in 28 Serie A matches, with a further four coming as a substitute. Through his 32 total appearances, he scored 11 goals and assisted a further 5. Manchester United's midfield options from last season - consisting of Michael Carrick, Tom Cleverley, Darren Fletcher, and Marouane Fellaini - scored a combined 2 goals in a combined 79 appearances, assisting a total of 1 more. Adding Ander Herrera to the mix makes the United midfield a bit nicer, bringing the total to 7 goals and 6 assists from a combined 112 appearances. This statistic could be considered a bit misleading as if Ander were in the team, the others' appearances would have declined a bit, so if we assume Fletcher did not play any matches last season and Cleverley played precisely half as many as he did in the league, then the total becomes 7 goals and 6 assists from 89 appearances. And so comes the most immediate and obvious bonus of signing Vidal: creativity coming from the midfield, something that has been missing for a fair while from the United midfield.
It is in defense, however, where Vidal truly shines and rises above the current Manchester United midfield. He put in an astounding 4.1 tackles per game, with a further 1.2 interceptions per game in the season gone by, winning the ball back a total of 5.3 times per game. The most proficient tackler from United last season was Marouane Fellaini, who put in 2.8 tackles per game. Ander Herrera put in 3.1 tackles per game at Bilbao, with 1 interception per game as well. Michael Carrick did win the ball more times than Vidal via interceptions by having 2.8 per game through his 29 league appearances last season. But brings something that United's midfield has lacked for a fair while: a dominant, physical, robust presence who can stamp his authority onto a match. He gets down and dirty, forcing the opposition to turn over the ball and will provide an extra barrier for the slightly vulnerable 3-4-1-2 system. This robustness comes with a cost, however. Vidal committed 2.3 fouls per league game in the past season, much more than any of United's midfielders. This tendency to give away fouls might come to bite United in the rear as they may be given in dangerous positions. But, one must remember that the Premier League is more physical than most other leagues so that fouling number may come down a bit. And also, a few rough challenges here and there will very likely strike a bit of fear into the opposition, like a certain Roy Keane used to.
Offensively, Vidal shines out once again. He took 1.8 shots per game in the past season, surpassed only by Ander Herrera who took 2.1 shots per game. Vidal did score more goals from the shots that he took, thus making him a more efficient scorer. Both of their numbers are higher than the closest from United's midfield last season: Marouane Fellaini, who took 1.6 shots per game with precisely zero goals coming from his efforts. Thanks to his endless energy which allows him to bombard up and down the pitch throughout the 90 minutes, Vidal also provided 1.5 key passes per game, more than any of United's midfield and only 0.1 behind Ander. Interestingly, while Vidal does bomb up and down the pitch nonstop, he does not dribble significantly more than the United midfield, having only 0.4 dribbles per game. The difference he makes is in his positioning and presence. Where United's midfield was static and immobile last season, Vidal and Pogba provided the Juventus midfield with dynamism and energy. He may not take the ball and just run, like Herrera did with Bilbao last season, but he will get forward and provide an option for his teammates, while also coming back quickly in the case of a potential counter attack from the opposition.
As previously touched upon, Vidal is an able passer. He did create a plethora of opportunities for his teammates but he also was a stable passing outlet. Vidal averaged 45.9 passes per game in the league with a completion rate of 83.7%. The completion is not as high as Carrick or even Cleverley for that matter, but he does drive deep into the opposition half in search of an opportunity that he can create for his teammates. In addition to being able to just pass the ball around, Vidal can spread the play out, completing 3.7 long balls per game, which, while not beating the United midfield, is still a strong number. This ability to push the ball out wide for another option is important, especially in United's new system where the wingbacks provide most of the width in the team. The system that Louis van Gaal is setting up at United is a very dynamic, pass and move system, and that is precisely what Vidal does. He wins the ball, makes a short pass, moves forward into space, and keeps the team moving forwards. He does give the ball away a bit, with 1.4 dispossessions and 1.3 turnovers per game, but he makes up for it by his sheer ability to get stuck in and win possession back for his team.

In-Game Performances:

To best understand how Vidal plays and to put his statistics into perspective, one must look at his various performances on their own. The two matches selected for this analysis are on two very different ends of the spectrum. One was a dominating performance by Juventus against Roma in a 3-0 win, thereby ending the latter club's undefeated run in the league. The other was one of Juventus' two losses in the season gone by (they finished with 102 points) where the team lost against Napoli 2-0. First up, though, is the match against Roma.

Juventus 3 - 0 Roma:

 Do you see all the little green "X" marks all over the pitch? Those are Vidal's successful tackles. Remember, this was a Roma team which was unbeaten in the Serie A until that point of the season. Their midfield was nothing light, consisting of Daniele de Rossi, Miralem Pjanic, and reporting United target Kevin Strootman. It is nothing too light, with de Rossi and Strootman both notable for being strong players who are able to dominate games. However, once they came up against Juventus, Vidal just took the game by the scruff of the neck and put in one of the most commanding midfield performances from last season's Serie A. Everything that makes Vidal great is encapsulated here, with him making a grand total of 8 successful tackles with 5 more going awry. That's right. Eight tackles. Oh, and he also had two interceptions, just for good measure, winning the ball back a total of 10 times for his team. He did not play too many passes but the majority of them were somewhat forward-thinking and positive. Another point to note is where he was drawing fouls from the opposition. Vidal was clearly providing a major threat, picking up fouls near the opposition's 18 yard box. This match encapsulates Vidal's abilities in providing cover to his defenders while also being able to push on forward and create an extra threat to the opposition, creating both a shot on goal and scoring a goal himself.

Juventus 0 - 2 Napoli:

On the other end of the spectrum is a performance which by Vidal's standards is fairly average. He completed a smattering of short passes to his teammates, clearly looking for an option, while also pushing on forwards and creating chances by spreading the ball out to the right-hand side, fitting in nicely with Manchester United's tradition of playing down the wings. Vidal completed "only" three tackles in this match - a number which is still well above the tackling statistics of any of United's midfielders. The tackles that he did win were also in the opposition half, indicating that he could very well be able to play a high-press style if Louis van Gall were to wish it so. Added to this, though Juventus went on to lose this match, Vidal was always looking forward and attacking the opposition half. Look at where he was winning aerial duels and starting his passes. Look at where he was committing fouls and completing tackles. Even though his team lost, he was clearly always pushing forwards and trying to make something happen, a never-say-die attitude which has been a hallmark of Manchester United for many, many years.
In the video above, take note of Vidal's constant movement in all of Juventus' attacks, getting forwards and making himself and option for his teammates, in case they need an extra option to pass the ball onto. Also note his extremely high workrate in getting back and closing the ball down, something that has been missing from the United midfield for a little while.

Conclusion:

If bought, Arturo Vidal will bring a very physical, strong, and aggressive presence to the United midfield. He will constantly hound the opposition, harassing them into making various mistakes and forcing them to lose possession of the ball. He will provide an extra membrane to cover the defense which proved to be a little bit vulnerable throughout the preseason tour. Most importantly though, he will inject energy to a Manchester United team that looked very lethargic and uninspired for many parts of the season gone by. A fair chunk of that was due to the manager, but the personnel was also partially responsible. Darren Fletcher, while substantially increasing in fitness, will likely be unable to play multiple times a week, especially as he is getting a bit old. Michael Carrick is getting on in age while Anderson and Marouane Fellaini have question marks over their futures. Tom Cleverley is extremely lacking in confidence, especially from the negative attention he received in the past season. Ander Herrera is a solid acquisition who could become integral to the Spanish midfield in the years to come, but he cannot do it all on his own. Vidal is the figure that Manchester United needs, the one that will make an immediate impact and assert his presence and remind the world that this is the biggest club in the world. Ed Woodward has repeatedly stated that United's budget is limitless. Well, it is time to prove to the world that it most definitely is.

Likelihood: 6/10
Impact: 10/10

All statistics via whoscored.com and all graphics via FourFourTwo

Monday 28 July 2014

Manchester United Scouting Reports: Jordy Clasie

One long year ago, the greatest manager hung up his hairdryer for the second and final time. It was the end of a season of hope, and the start of a season of belief and looking forward to the future. David Moyes was "The Chosen One," as was proudly proclaimed on the Stetford End. A tumultuous year later, after a season of more ups and downs than the Himalayas, a man jokingly referred to as "The Lederhosen One" is coming to take over. Indeed, Louis van Gaal has now stamped his authority over the club after the end of the World Cup in Brazil, replacing David Moyes and the interim manager Ryan Giggs. Nevertheless, this summer was always going to be one of change in the squad, and the one area that has the biggest need of repairs is none other than the midfield. With a Dutch manager and a bit of a Dutch presence in the squad, where else to look but the Netherlands themselves? First up, though, is the name on the lips of quite a few people as of late, Jordy Clasie, the 22 year old Dutch midfielder who currently plies his trade with Feyenoord, the former club of a certain Robin van Persie.

Performance and Comparison

In the past season, Clasie was a pertinent and integral figure in the Feyenoord lineup as he helped the team to finish second in the Eredivisie, thereby giving the team an opportunity to play in the coming season's Champions League. He started 32 matches in the season gone by, out of a possible 34, while also having 1 goal and 7 assists to his name throughout that period. For comparison, Manchester United's midfield - consisting of Michael Carrick, Tom Cleverley, Darren Fletcher, and Marouane Fellaini - were part of an astounding and mind boggling 3 goals throughout the whole of last season, having 2 goals and 1 assist among them. In their defense, the person with the most appearances was Michael Carrick who started 26 matches and was substituted on in 3 more while Clasie started 32 matches in total. Tom Cleverley only started 18 matches with 4 substitute appearances, Darren Fletcher had 9 starts and 3 substitute appearances, and Marouane Fellaini who only started 12 league matches and was substituted in 4 more. Returning to Clasie, he made 57.3 passes per game in the past season, completing 84.6% of his passes, while also having 1.2 key passes per game. The only United player who was similar in terms of creating chances was Carrick, who had 1 key pass per game while also completing 70.7 passes with an accuracy of 88.6%. In addition, Clasie is also skilled at pulling the ball from side to side as he completes 4 long passes per game on average, but this does not particularly stand out, especially when compared to United's midfield as Tom Cleverley completes 3.8 per game, Darren Fletcher does 4.6 per game, and Michael Carrick does 6 per game. The biggest advantage to take from his passing is that while Clasie can hold onto the ball reasonably well, he is also able to provide an incisive threat to the opposition - something that Manchester United's midfielders have consistently failed to do over the season gone by.
Defensively, Clasie works like a bulldog in the midfield, constantly running and providing cover to the team's back line. He is not at all afraid to get stuck in and make challenges left and right as he won 3.2 tackles per game in the past season, more than any of United's midfielders - a fact made more impressive since he played more matches than any of the players from Manchester United's midfield.  The only one who came close was Marouane Fellaini with 2.8 tackles per game but that was offset by him giving away 2.1 fouls per game, unlike Clasie who gave away 1.3 fouls per game. This tendency to give away fouls is somewhat troubling, but his ability to win tackles makes up for this. Furthermore, Clasie makes 1.9 interceptions per game, which is joint-second highest when compared to United's midfield, as he is level with Fellaini. The only person who makes more interceptions is Michael Carrick who made 2.8 interceptions per game. 
Offensively, Clasie provides a decent outlet. As already stated, he provides 1.2 key passes per game, higher than any of Manchester United's current midfielders. In addition to this, he also takes 1.1 shots per game, second highest out of the current midfield options, beaten out only by Fellaini. But unlike Fellaini, Clasie actually has scored a goal and creates chances for his other teammates. Where Clasie makes 1.2 key passes per game, Fellaini makes 0.3. Clasie also is somewhat mobile, completing 0.5 dribbles per game, more than any of United's players except Marouane Fellani who made 0.6 dribbles per game in the league. However, Clasie was dispossessed 0.7 times per game, unlike Fellaini who was dispossessed 1.4 times per game. Not only does Clasie dribble more than any of United's midfielders, with the able to take the game and move it forward on his own. Cleverley is dispossessed 0.9 times per game while only having 0.2 dribbles per game. The one worry about Clasie is that he turns the ball over fairly often, giving away 0.9 passes per game, but this is somewhat vindicated by the fact that he is able to provide a consistent creative outlet, making chances for his teammates and taking risks, unlike the midfielders currently present at Manchester United.

In Game Performances:

To best understand Jordy Clasie may fit into Louis van Gaal's system, why not look into his 2 appearances in the FIFA World Cup, against Argentina and Brazil, where he actually played a role under the new Mancehster United manager? First, let's look at his performance against Argentina, where he came on as a substitute in the 62' minute.

Netherlands 0 - 0 Argentina:


What is interesting to note from the above graphic is how consistently Clasie was able to find an outlet to pass into in what was generally a very conservative match with both teams essentially grinding each other down for the better part of 120 minutes. A large majority of his passes were completed, with the major losses being when he tried to thread through his teammates either with a through ball or a long ball. With Javier Mascherano dominating the midfield as he did that day, it is unsurprising that they were lapped up by the Argentinians. Another thing to note is how he frequently spread the ball out side to side. This hints not only at what Clasie does but also what van Gaal might be up to with Manchester United. It might represent an evolution of Manchester United's traditional wingplay, with an emphasis on the wingbacks in van Gaal's oft-mentioned 3-4-1-2 system. This passing map also represents a slight worry as it might suggest that Clasie is not able to make the next step up to the level needed in Manchester United. A frequent accusation levelled at him is that he is essentially a Dutch Cleverley and this map only helps to provide support to that statement. Nearly all of his passes went sideways, and while that may be good for recycling the ball, there needs to be more positive passing. An equally important counterpoint is to note where his passes came from. Looking at that, one would notice that he is able to get both up and down the pitch and make positive movements. He represents the basic tenet of football: pass and move. That is precisely what he is doing here. He is able to make the passes consistently but he is also moving forward and adding numbers to threaten the opposition, something which the United midfielders consistently failed to do last season, with the team simply being too static in possession.

Netherlands 3 - 0 Brazil:


In this particular match, a different Clasie is on display. In the Argentina match he put on a display as a possession oriented man, able to recycle the ball endlessly and move forwards at the same time. Against Brazil, he worked as a midfield destroyer, helping to shut down the likes of Oscar - a player who, along with Cesc Fabregas, will very likely be Chelsea's main attacking outlet through the middle, providing through balls to Diego Costa - and Paulinho, a player who will likely pay a crucial role for Tottenham in the upcoming season. Not to mention, Fernandinho, an important piece in the Manchester City squad, was also shut down by Clasie after he came on in the 45th minute. As one can see above, Clasie completed 4 tackles and 4 interceptions, winning the ball back an astounding 8 times. Furthermore, he aided the defense with 3 completed clearances. Here, Clasie also realized that he might not be simply able to cut straight through the Brazilian midfield so he compensated by moving out towards the wings, just a little bit, thereby giving him some extra space and time to pick out his passes. Two major concerns come out from the above graphic. The first one is how little Clasie saw the ball throughout the 90 minutes that he played, but he can only pass as often as he receives the ball. He certainly put his stamp on the game in a defensive sense, but for the ideal game it would have been better if he was just able to dictate the flow of the match a little better. The other worry is that, while he most definitely was more positive in his play in this match, he still went sideways just a little too often, not aiding the image of him being the Dutch Cleverley.

Conclusion:

Overall, Clasie is a rather classy player. He is able to both create chances for his teammates and able to hold onto possession and recycle the ball constantly. When asked to, he can also provide a dominating defensive performance to shut down the opposition midfield. He is consistently better than Manchester United's midfielders on a variety of different metrics. In the little playing time he was able to scrounge up in the World Cup, he provided two very different performances in two very different styles. Against Argentina, he provided a consistent passing outlet for his teammates, while also constantly moving forwards, bringing positivity to the match. However, against Brazil, he put in a defensive shift, absolutely dominating Brazil's midfielders, constantly just stealing the ball from them. The worry from both his matches is the fact that he was consistently passing the ball sideways, just like a certain Tom Cleverley. Another worry that stemmed from the Brazil match was that he was unable to truly control the pace of the proceedings. He will, almost certainly, provide a bullish and strong presence in the United midfield, and he can grow into a truly great central midfielder, with the ability to both control the pace of the game and provide quality defensive cover to the team. He could become the Tom Cleverley that might have come out if he was never injured when playing against Bolton 3 long years ago.

Likelihood: 5/10
Impact: 8.5/10

All statistics via WhoScored and all graphics via FourFourTwo 

Monday 14 April 2014

Manchester United Scouting Reports: Luke Shaw

"Any players that we've quietly discussed with are more than happy to join Manchester United." As the season winds down, people from all over will look back at it and attempt to dissect it, understand what happened. At Manchester United, the general consensus, belief, and understanding is that this coming summer will be one of an overhaul; a new face to the team which is still in the shadow of the greatest manager of all time. David Moyes will most certainly be looking to place his stamp on the team, make it in his vision and make them get back on top of the pile. One major position that will be looked into is left-back, as Patrice Evra seems certain to either be shipped out or reduced in his role, while Alexander Buttner may just prove to be a useful squad player. Nevertheless, a new person on the left side of the defense will definitely be needed, and as rumors have it, United are looking at none other than the talented Southampton left-back Luke Shaw.

Performance and Comparison

Luke Shaw has been critical to the Southampton team. Not only is he able to defend effectively, he is equally able to bombard up the sideline and deliver lethal crosses. He is much like Leighton Baines, except significantly younger and with plenty of room to grow. He has consistently featured in the starting eleven during Southampton's league campaign, beginning a match 31 times this season, out 34 possible matches, underlining his importance to the team. Throughout this period of time, he has put in 2 tackles per match, and intercepted the ball, on average, 1.1 times per match throughout this current league campaign, totaling to winning the ball 3.1 times per match for the team. This highlights a tenacity and willingness to work hard for his team and win the ball for the greater good. While putting in a fair number of tackles, he only commits 0.7 fouls per match, shining light on his ability to win the ball cleanly, without putting his team in danger. Patrice Evra features somewhat similar statistics, putting in 2.4 tackles per match and 1.6 interceptions per match on average throughout his 30 league appearances this season, totaling to winning the ball 4 times per match on average. This number is obviously higher than Shaw's but the difference is in the fact that Evra concedes 1.1 fouls per match. Subtracting this number from the total amount of times they have respectively won the ball gives a fuller picture of each player's respective contribution to defense. While Shaw "truly" wins the ball back 2.4 times per match, Evra "truly" wins the ball back 2.9 times per match, a gap that is significantly smaller than what it was before. What United would be gaining, then, is a player who, while not making too many tackles, makes sure to win the ball instead of giving away a set piece. 

One major gap between Evra and Shaw is the number of clearances they make per match. While Evra makes 5.5 clearances on average in a single match, Shaw makes 3.7. This could suggest several things. One could be that Evra is more effective is covering any holes in the defensive line and is able to plug them for when his center backs are caught unaware. Another could be that Shaw, instead of booting the ball out, just passes it or dribbles it out of trouble, which could be dangerous as he could unintentionally end up making a mistake in the process. It most probably is a combination of the two, with Shaw needing to learn and to grow in order to be proactive and cover potential holes in the defensive line, and while obviously having skill in passing and dribbling, likely needs to, once again, learn and grow. This will come with experience, for one must remember that he is still only 18 years old, soon to be 19, thus making him younger than the highly touted Adnan Januzaj. Another key facet in a defender's arsenal is the ability to shut down the opposition attacker and prevent them from just whizzing past. Evra has been guilty of this, and it can easily be put down to age, considering he is 32 years old now, as he was dribbled past 0.9 times per match on average this season. In comparison, Luke Shaw was dribbled past 0.6 times per match on average in the league. It is basically a 1:2 ratio between Shaw and Evra in this category; for every 1 time Shaw is dribbled past, it will have happened twice to Evra. For Evra, this is more than likely due to the fact that as he has aged, he has been unable to cover his flank as effectively, tiring in having to sprint up and down the touchline multiple times in a single match. This will only worsen as time goes on and his legs go out. For Shaw, it hopefully should remain consistent or only increase slightly for about the next twelve-odd years.
On the opposite end of the pitch, Luke Shaw bears a striking resemblance to Patrice Evra. Shaw gives 0.9 key passes per match; Evra gives 1.1. Shaw sends in 0.7 successful crosses per match; Evra puts in 0.9. Two key factors which differentiate the two are the dribbles per match statistic and the crossing success percentage. Shaw has been a majorly better dribbler than Evra this season, putting in 1.5 successful dribbles per match over his 31 starts for the Saints this season. In his 30 matches for United, however, Evra has put in 0.7 successful dribbles per match, under half of what Shaw does. This once again highlights the issues with Evra's aging legs while also underscoring Shaw's ability in the final third. Not only does he put in relatively the same number of key passes as Evra does in a match, he can provide another threat by putting in runs to help pull defenders out of position. Shaw can create chances for both his teammates and himself by putting in driving runs. This also suggests an ability to help lead a counterattack by dinking past defenders and setting up his fellow players, fitting perfectly in the traditional Manchester United setup of blitz-like assaults on the opposition goal. Regarding the crossing success percentage, Shaw has some work to do. While Evra succeeds with 22% of the crosses he attempts, a decent percentage for the ideal number would be 25%, Shaw completes 18% of the crosses he puts into the box. If he were to come to United, Shaw would need to most certainly improve his consistency in his crossing, reaching the level that Evra is at or even higher, which should hopefully come with age and experience.

In-Game Performances:

To properly grasp the playstyle of Luke Shaw, we shall look at three of his recent matches, against Manchester City, Liverpool, and Tottenham, all of which Southampton lost, 4-1, 3-0, and 3-2 respectively. Why these three matches then? It is the best manner in which to see how Shaw will be able to perform for United against top teams, with all of the above qualifying in this requirement, as well as how he is able to perform while the rest of the team performs poorly. Does he whither away or continue to play consistently no matter how his teammates are performing? It is said that in times of adversity one's true character comes out, and there is no better manner to determine this than looking at these three matches.

Southampton 0 - 3 Liverpool:


 In this heatmap, several of Shaw's abilities are able to stand out. Most notably, it is his tendency and ability to bombard up and down the left flank, creating havoc for the opposition's right side. Note how his biggest action area was actually inside Liverpool's half, again highlighting his skill in pushing forward from his left back role and attack the opposition. It is not as though he scrimped on his defensive duties either, for another major action area is right near the corner of his box. Theoretically, with this ability to get up and down the wing so much and put such a stamp on the game while still being beaten down by the opposition, Shaw could prove to be integral to Moyes' plans in the future. It will enable to team to play a high-pressing game, as highlighted by him pressing so high up in the Liverpool half during this match.

The above action map for Luke Shaw from the same match again serves to emphasize the same skills. Here, one can actually see the chances he was able to create for his teammates, with three in total, all of which being crosses into good areas. Putting Wayne Rooney or Robin van Persie at the end of such balls will only serve to help him rack up assists. It can also be implied that he likes to do a fair number of one-twos with a nearby player, as is again suggested by the number of short passes cutting diagonally infield. Pairing him up with Shinji Kagawa down the left will only prove to be a deadly combination, for with his energy and commitment, he can allow Shinji to drift inside more freely, without such an emphasis on being forced to aid while defending. It is easy to forget the fact that Shaw is supposed to be a left-back but his abilities in defending are on show here as well. He put in crucial tackles and critical interceptions in key areas, thus helping his team from having to be on the end of a bigger walloping at the hands of Liverpool.

Tottenham 3 - 2 Southampton:

 This performance stands out in sharp contrast to the one that he was able to put in against Liverpool. While in the previous match he was able to get forward more easily, a more defensive Luke Shaw is visible here, with his traits as a left-back shining through, despite it being another loss for the Saints. With the emphasis on his position of play being primarily near his own box, one can see how disciplined and controlled Shaw can be while defending. In the graphic below, one can easily witness his defensive skills absolutely shining through. He put in key interceptions, tackles and clearances, certainly saving the skin of his team on more than one occasion. This skill in being able to put in mature performances despite his usually hyperactive attacking style of play will only improve as time goes on. Think of the Bayern Munich matches, and how Bayern was only ever truly able to capitalize after the defense became a bit complacent. A controlled presence is needed to help calm things down, as unfortunately did not happen in that match. Shaw, going off of this performance and his youthful age, can most certainly provide a level of control and maturity that other players may not be able to provide in years to come.

Manchester City 4 - 1 Southampton:

 And so, normal service is resumed from Luke Shaw. However, in a slight change, this performance is a bit of a combination of his Tottenham and Liverpool performances. Not only was he able to get up and down the left flank, laying off small passes to his midfielders and then consequently moving forwards, he was also able to defend effectively, as is shown in the graphic below. He put in critical tackles against Jesus Navas, notorious for his pace and trickery on the ball. Yet he did not compromise his attacking, creating one chance while also putting in three crosses to dangerous areas which were rather unfortunately left incomplete. Once again, he very clearly has attacking skills, and he certainly knows as to where he needs to put in the ball for maximum effect. Put alongside with the attacking variety that United's front four can provide, he could very easily be racking up the assists for Manchester United in the years to come.

Conclusion:

At the end of the day, Shaw is still a very young player who has plenty of room to grow. Looking at the clear ability that he has displayed over the past couple of seasons, it is very likely that he could become one of the best in his position at left back. He possesses a skillset quite similar to that of Patrice Evra, and will only be looking to improve in the future, particularly considering the fact that he is still only 18 years of age (turning 19 over the summer). If signed, he could very easily be United's left back for well over a decade, joining David de Gea in near-certainties to be part of the backline for years to come. His contract does, however, run until 2018, so he would very likely cost quite a bit more than the £11.5 million figure suggested by transfermarkt.co.uk. He can not only defend, but also attack with equal ease, while having a very high-energy playstyle which is a requirement for the modern full-back as the athletes in football become nearer and nearer to prime human physical condition. He will allow David Moyes to utilize a high-energy pressing play, with the team countering with plenty of pace, best highlighted in the 5-0 demolishing of Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League or the 4-1 victory on the first day of the season. Luke Shaw could come to be critical to David Moyes' tenure at United in both the near and distant future. Should he be able to live up to the fabled p-word, he will prove to be worth every penny of the touted £25 million, just like Rio Ferdinand proved to be in his decade of service to Manchester United.
 

Likelihood: 5/10
Impact: 9.5/10