"Any players that we've quietly discussed with are more than happy to join Manchester United." As the season winds down, people from all over will look back at it and attempt to dissect it, understand what happened. At Manchester United, the general consensus, belief, and understanding is that this coming summer will be one of an overhaul; a new face to the team which is still in the shadow of the greatest manager of all time. David Moyes will most certainly be looking to place his stamp on the team, make it in his vision and make them get back on top of the pile. One major position that will be looked into is left-back, as Patrice Evra seems certain to either be shipped out or reduced in his role, while Alexander Buttner may just prove to be a useful squad player. Nevertheless, a new person on the left side of the defense will definitely be needed, and as rumors have it, United are looking at none other than the talented Southampton left-back Luke Shaw.
In this heatmap, several of Shaw's abilities are able to stand out. Most notably, it is his tendency and ability to bombard up and down the left flank, creating havoc for the opposition's right side. Note how his biggest action area was actually inside Liverpool's half, again highlighting his skill in pushing forward from his left back role and attack the opposition. It is not as though he scrimped on his defensive duties either, for another major action area is right near the corner of his box. Theoretically, with this ability to get up and down the wing so much and put such a stamp on the game while still being beaten down by the opposition, Shaw could prove to be integral to Moyes' plans in the future. It will enable to team to play a high-pressing game, as highlighted by him pressing so high up in the Liverpool half during this match.
This performance stands out in sharp contrast to the one that he was able to put in against Liverpool. While in the previous match he was able to get forward more easily, a more defensive Luke Shaw is visible here, with his traits as a left-back shining through, despite it being another loss for the Saints. With the emphasis on his position of play being primarily near his own box, one can see how disciplined and controlled Shaw can be while defending. In the graphic below, one can easily witness his defensive skills absolutely shining through. He put in key interceptions, tackles and clearances, certainly saving the skin of his team on more than one occasion. This skill in being able to put in mature performances despite his usually hyperactive attacking style of play will only improve as time goes on. Think of the Bayern Munich matches, and how Bayern was only ever truly able to capitalize after the defense became a bit complacent. A controlled presence is needed to help calm things down, as unfortunately did not happen in that match. Shaw, going off of this performance and his youthful age, can most certainly provide a level of control and maturity that other players may not be able to provide in years to come.
And so, normal service is resumed from Luke Shaw. However, in a slight change, this performance is a bit of a combination of his Tottenham and Liverpool performances. Not only was he able to get up and down the left flank, laying off small passes to his midfielders and then consequently moving forwards, he was also able to defend effectively, as is shown in the graphic below. He put in critical tackles against Jesus Navas, notorious for his pace and trickery on the ball. Yet he did not compromise his attacking, creating one chance while also putting in three crosses to dangerous areas which were rather unfortunately left incomplete. Once again, he very clearly has attacking skills, and he certainly knows as to where he needs to put in the ball for maximum effect. Put alongside with the attacking variety that United's front four can provide, he could very easily be racking up the assists for Manchester United in the years to come.
Likelihood: 5/10
Performance and Comparison
Luke Shaw has been critical to the Southampton team. Not only is he able to defend effectively, he is equally able to bombard up the sideline and deliver lethal crosses. He is much like Leighton Baines, except significantly younger and with plenty of room to grow. He has consistently featured in the starting eleven during Southampton's league campaign, beginning a match 31 times this season, out 34 possible matches, underlining his importance to the team. Throughout this period of time, he has put in 2 tackles per match, and intercepted the ball, on average, 1.1 times per match throughout this current league campaign, totaling to winning the ball 3.1 times per match for the team. This highlights a tenacity and willingness to work hard for his team and win the ball for the greater good. While putting in a fair number of tackles, he only commits 0.7 fouls per match, shining light on his ability to win the ball cleanly, without putting his team in danger. Patrice Evra features somewhat similar statistics, putting in 2.4 tackles per match and 1.6 interceptions per match on average throughout his 30 league appearances this season, totaling to winning the ball 4 times per match on average. This number is obviously higher than Shaw's but the difference is in the fact that Evra concedes 1.1 fouls per match. Subtracting this number from the total amount of times they have respectively won the ball gives a fuller picture of each player's respective contribution to defense. While Shaw "truly" wins the ball back 2.4 times per match, Evra "truly" wins the ball back 2.9 times per match, a gap that is significantly smaller than what it was before. What United would be gaining, then, is a player who, while not making too many tackles, makes sure to win the ball instead of giving away a set piece.
One major gap between Evra and Shaw is the number of clearances they make per match. While Evra makes 5.5 clearances on average in a single match, Shaw makes 3.7. This could suggest several things. One could be that Evra is more effective is covering any holes in the defensive line and is able to plug them for when his center backs are caught unaware. Another could be that Shaw, instead of booting the ball out, just passes it or dribbles it out of trouble, which could be dangerous as he could unintentionally end up making a mistake in the process. It most probably is a combination of the two, with Shaw needing to learn and to grow in order to be proactive and cover potential holes in the defensive line, and while obviously having skill in passing and dribbling, likely needs to, once again, learn and grow. This will come with experience, for one must remember that he is still only 18 years old, soon to be 19, thus making him younger than the highly touted Adnan Januzaj. Another key facet in a defender's arsenal is the ability to shut down the opposition attacker and prevent them from just whizzing past. Evra has been guilty of this, and it can easily be put down to age, considering he is 32 years old now, as he was dribbled past 0.9 times per match on average this season. In comparison, Luke Shaw was dribbled past 0.6 times per match on average in the league. It is basically a 1:2 ratio between Shaw and Evra in this category; for every 1 time Shaw is dribbled past, it will have happened twice to Evra. For Evra, this is more than likely due to the fact that as he has aged, he has been unable to cover his flank as effectively, tiring in having to sprint up and down the touchline multiple times in a single match. This will only worsen as time goes on and his legs go out. For Shaw, it hopefully should remain consistent or only increase slightly for about the next twelve-odd years.
On the opposite end of the pitch, Luke Shaw bears a striking resemblance to Patrice Evra. Shaw gives 0.9 key passes per match; Evra gives 1.1. Shaw sends in 0.7 successful crosses per match; Evra puts in 0.9. Two key factors which differentiate the two are the dribbles per match statistic and the crossing success percentage. Shaw has been a majorly better dribbler than Evra this season, putting in 1.5 successful dribbles per match over his 31 starts for the Saints this season. In his 30 matches for United, however, Evra has put in 0.7 successful dribbles per match, under half of what Shaw does. This once again highlights the issues with Evra's aging legs while also underscoring Shaw's ability in the final third. Not only does he put in relatively the same number of key passes as Evra does in a match, he can provide another threat by putting in runs to help pull defenders out of position. Shaw can create chances for both his teammates and himself by putting in driving runs. This also suggests an ability to help lead a counterattack by dinking past defenders and setting up his fellow players, fitting perfectly in the traditional Manchester United setup of blitz-like assaults on the opposition goal. Regarding the crossing success percentage, Shaw has some work to do. While Evra succeeds with 22% of the crosses he attempts, a decent percentage for the ideal number would be 25%, Shaw completes 18% of the crosses he puts into the box. If he were to come to United, Shaw would need to most certainly improve his consistency in his crossing, reaching the level that Evra is at or even higher, which should hopefully come with age and experience.
In-Game Performances:
To properly grasp the playstyle of Luke Shaw, we shall look at three of his recent matches, against Manchester City, Liverpool, and Tottenham, all of which Southampton lost, 4-1, 3-0, and 3-2 respectively. Why these three matches then? It is the best manner in which to see how Shaw will be able to perform for United against top teams, with all of the above qualifying in this requirement, as well as how he is able to perform while the rest of the team performs poorly. Does he whither away or continue to play consistently no matter how his teammates are performing? It is said that in times of adversity one's true character comes out, and there is no better manner to determine this than looking at these three matches.
Southampton 0 - 3 Liverpool:
In this heatmap, several of Shaw's abilities are able to stand out. Most notably, it is his tendency and ability to bombard up and down the left flank, creating havoc for the opposition's right side. Note how his biggest action area was actually inside Liverpool's half, again highlighting his skill in pushing forward from his left back role and attack the opposition. It is not as though he scrimped on his defensive duties either, for another major action area is right near the corner of his box. Theoretically, with this ability to get up and down the wing so much and put such a stamp on the game while still being beaten down by the opposition, Shaw could prove to be integral to Moyes' plans in the future. It will enable to team to play a high-pressing game, as highlighted by him pressing so high up in the Liverpool half during this match.
The above action map for Luke Shaw from the same match again serves to emphasize the same skills. Here, one can actually see the chances he was able to create for his teammates, with three in total, all of which being crosses into good areas. Putting Wayne Rooney or Robin van Persie at the end of such balls will only serve to help him rack up assists. It can also be implied that he likes to do a fair number of one-twos with a nearby player, as is again suggested by the number of short passes cutting diagonally infield. Pairing him up with Shinji Kagawa down the left will only prove to be a deadly combination, for with his energy and commitment, he can allow Shinji to drift inside more freely, without such an emphasis on being forced to aid while defending. It is easy to forget the fact that Shaw is supposed to be a left-back but his abilities in defending are on show here as well. He put in crucial tackles and critical interceptions in key areas, thus helping his team from having to be on the end of a bigger walloping at the hands of Liverpool.
Tottenham 3 - 2 Southampton:
Manchester City 4 - 1 Southampton:
Conclusion:
At the end of the day, Shaw is still a very young player who has plenty of room to grow. Looking at the clear ability that he has displayed over the past couple of seasons, it is very likely that he could become one of the best in his position at left back. He possesses a skillset quite similar to that of Patrice Evra, and will only be looking to improve in the future, particularly considering the fact that he is still only 18 years of age (turning 19 over the summer). If signed, he could very easily be United's left back for well over a decade, joining David de Gea in near-certainties to be part of the backline for years to come. His contract does, however, run until 2018, so he would very likely cost quite a bit more than the £11.5 million figure suggested by transfermarkt.co.uk. He can not only defend, but also attack with equal ease, while having a very high-energy playstyle which is a requirement for the modern full-back as the athletes in football become nearer and nearer to prime human physical condition. He will allow David Moyes to utilize a high-energy pressing play, with the team countering with plenty of pace, best highlighted in the 5-0 demolishing of Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League or the 4-1 victory on the first day of the season. Luke Shaw could come to be critical to David Moyes' tenure at United in both the near and distant future. Should he be able to live up to the fabled p-word, he will prove to be worth every penny of the touted £25 million, just like Rio Ferdinand proved to be in his decade of service to Manchester United.
